![]() ![]() Various groups are now actively performing thorough analyses and have produced a multitude of case studies (e.g. Some types of analyses, notably the attribution of temperature and large-scale precipitation extremes, have generally been providing consistent results across methods and cases and have been carried out so frequently that they may be operationalized. For these event types, the general methodology can now be standardized, requiring case-by-case modification only for specific aspects such as model evaluation. In a few cases attribution studies have been carried out in near real time by research teams. A protocol on the design and framework for operational analyses is needed such that analyses will be comparable. This paper aims to be a starting point for this. It can also be used as a standard methodology in academic event attributions. Recently there have been many overview studies on extreme event attribution. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has written a “state-of-the-science” assessment report ( National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016), discussing the current state of extreme weather attribution science. Chapter 3 of the NAS report is dedicated to methods of event attribution, including observational analyses, model analyses, and multi-method studies. ![]() The report also gives an overview of operational and/or rapid attribution systems. ( 2016), and Otto ( 2017) give an overview of the state of the art in event attribution at the time of their publications. There has also been a lively debate in the literature on how to define and answer attribution questions. #EAZYDRAW INDEPENDENT SCALE NOT AVAILABLE HOW TO# ( 2016) state that we are now able to give reliable answers to the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of occurrence of some classes of individual extreme weather events. ( 2018) propose to define extreme event attribution as the ensemble of scientific ways to interpret the question “was this event influenced by climate change?”, focussing on two main methods: the “risk-based approach” – estimating how the probability of occurrence for the class of events “at least as extreme as the current one” has changed due to climate change – and the “storyline approach” – evaluating the influence of climate change on (thermo)dynamic processes that led to the specific event at hand ( Shepherd, 2016).
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